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Case-Shiller index Shows Home Values Rising Nationwide, Too

Case-Shiller Index annual change July 2012

There have been no shortage of “housing market” stories lately. After sinking through much of late-last decade, home values slowly stabilized into mid-2011. By October 2011, values appeared to have bottomed.

Today, nearly five-and-one-half years after the April 2007 housing market peak, home prices are finally showing their ability to rebound. Over the past 12 months, a bevy of housing market data highlights broad-based market growth.

For example, as compared to August 2011, Existing Home Sales are up 9.3 percent nationally; New Home Sales are up 27.7 percent nationally; and home inventories have slipped to multi-year lows in Phoenix and throughout the country.

Furthermore, multiple home value trackers show home prices rising both regionally and nationwide.

Last week, the government’s Federal Housing Finance Agency released its Home Price Index (HPI) — a metric which tracks how home values change between sequential property sales. HPI showed home values up 3.7% nationally.

Another home valuation tracker — the S&P Case-Shiller Index — has shown home values to be rising, too.

As compared to one year ago, the private-sector metric puts home prices higher by 1.2 percent via its 20-city composite. 20 cities remains a small subset of the broader U.S. population, but, in looking for a trend, it’s clear that the trend is a positive one.

Some of the Case-Shiller Index highlights from its most recent report :

  • All 20 tracked cities showed home price gains between June 2012 and July 2012
  • The previously hard-hit city of Phoenix now leads the nation with a 16.6% annual gain
  • Versus their respective lows, San Francisco and Detroit are up 20.4% and 19.7%

In addition, on a 12-month basis, only four cities are showing negative home value growth — Atlanta, Chicago, Las Vegas, and New York City.

The Case-Shiller Index is a national index, though, and specifically does not report on valuation changes in specific U.S. cities and their neighborhoods. For local real estate data, make sure to speak with a local real estate agent instead.

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October 2, 2012 Posted by | Housing Analysis | , , | Leave a comment

Case-Shiller Index Shows Huge Home Price Gain

Case-Shiller Index June 2012

Home prices continue to rise nationwide. 

According to the Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Index, home prices rose 6.9% between the first and second quarter of 2012, the largest quarter-to-quarter gain since the home-value tracker’s 1987 inception and another signal that the housing market is in recovery.

The private-sector metric’s results are similar to what the government’s Home Price Index showed for June, too — values rising quickly. In addition, for the second straight month, each of the Case-Shiller Index’s 20 tracked markets showed month-to-month improvement.

June would have marked three straight months if not for Detroit’s value-setback in April.

The top performing markets in June, as tracked by the Case-Shiller Index were :

  1. Detroit, Michigan : 6.0 percent gain
  2. Minneapolis, Minnesota : 4.8 percent gain
  3. Chicago, Illinois : 4.6 percent gain

However, it should be noted that the Case-Shiller Index pulls from a limited sample set. It does not include condominiums or multi-unit homes in its findings, nor does it account for new construction. These exclusions make a material impact on the results of both Minneapolis and Chicago, as examples. Both cities feature a large concentration of condos.

Overall, though, the June data looks sound. Said a spokesman for the Case-Shiller Index, “The market may have finally turned around.”

Furthermore, home buyers in Fireside at Norterra and nationwide can corroborate what the Case-Shiller Index has uncovered. Falling home inventory and rising home demand have helped to move home prices higher in many U.S. markets.

Low mortgage rates make new homes affordable and rising rents are turning the Rent vs Buy equation on its head. In July, according to the National Association of REALTORS®, first-time home buyers accounted for 34% of all home resales.  This trend is expected to continue into 2013.

As compared to one year ago, today’s home buyers have 8% more purchasing power and, with rising home prices, they’re going to need it.

September 6, 2012 Posted by | Housing Analysis | , , | Leave a comment

Home Purchasing Power Jumps To New Highs

Purchasing power grows in Q2 2012

With mortgage rates down to all-time lows, you can buy a lot more home for your money. Home affordability is at an all-time high.

According to last week’s Freddie Mac mortgage rate survey, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage has dropped to 3.62% nationwide. This is down from 4.08% in March, and down from 4.60% from one year ago.

Mortgage rates are “on sale”.

Falling mortgage rates can make one of two changes to the way a Phoenix home buyer looks at properties. They can either make a given home’s monthly housing payment that much more affordable to a buyer, or they can expand that buyer’s home purchasing power to a higher, maximum price point.

Since July 2011, that maximum price point increase has been significant.

Assuming a principal + interest payment of $1,000 per month and a 30-year loan term, a category that includes 30-year fixed rate mortgages and most adjustable-rate mortgages, here’s a maximum loan size comparison of the last 12 months : 

  • July 2011 : A payment of $1,000 affords a maximum loan size of $197,130
  • July 2012 : A payment of $1,000 affords a maximum loan size of $219,409

With an increase in maximum loan size of more than $22,000 in just 12 months, it’s no wonder that multiple-offer situations are becoming more common — today’s buyers know that low home prices and low mortgage rates are combining to make home buying more affordable than at any time in recent history.

However, the buyer-friendly environment can’t last forever.

First, home prices have started to rise nationwide. Demand for homes has outpaced home supply in many U.S. markets and that leads home prices higher. Second, low mortgage rates can’t last forever.

A recovering economy will lift mortgage rates back above 4 percent, a scenario that will hit home affordability hard.

Home-buying conditions are optimal this season. If you’re in the market for a new home, talk to your real estate agent and loan officer about maximizing your home purchasing power.

July 10, 2012 Posted by | Personal Finance | , , | Leave a comment

Pending Home Sales Index Hits A 2-Year High

Pending Home Sales IndexHomes are going under contract at a quickening pace.

In May, for the second time in 3 months, the Pending Home Sales Index crossed the 100 barrier, stretching to 101.1. A “pending home sale” is a home under contract to sell, but not yet sold.

Statistically, the Pending Home Sales Index reading is significant for two reasons.

First, the index’s reading is at its highest since April 2010. From this, we infer that today’s pace of home buying in Arizona and nationwide is approaching the “stimulated” levels of two years ago — but without the federal stimulus.

This is a positive signal for the housing market.

Second, because the Pending Home Sales Index is a relative index; and, because it was assigned a value of 100 upon its inception in 2001, readings higher than 100 imply that the housing market is performing better than it did during the index’s first year.

2001 happened to be a strong year for housing. 2012, it seems, is shaping up to be a better one.

And, there’s another reason why the Pending Home Sales Index matters so much to buyer and sellers of Phoenix — the Pending Home Sales Index is among the few “forward-looking” housing market indicators.

Rather than report on how the housing market looked 30-60 days in the past, as the Case-Shiller Index does; or the Existing Home Sales report, the Pending Home Sales Index looks 30-60 days to the future.

80% of homes under contract sell within 2 months so, as the Pending Home Sales Index goes, so goes housing. Based on May’s data, therefore, we can assume that home sale figures will rise through the summer.

If you’re shopping for homes right now, consider going under contract while the market remains somewhat soft. Mortgage rates are low and so are home prices. It makes for good home-buying conditions.

July 3, 2012 Posted by | Housing Analysis | , , | Leave a comment

Building Confidence Rises To 5-Year High

Homebuilder confidence since 2000

Home builders anticipate growth in the market for newly-built, single-family homes.  

For June 2012, the National Association of Homebuilders reports its monthly Housing Market Index at 29 — an increase of more than 100% from one year ago and the highest HMI value since May 2007.

When the Housing Market Index reads 50 or better, it’s meant to indicate favorable conditions for builders in the single-family, new-construction market. Readings below 50 suggest unfavorable conditions for builders.

The index has not been above 50 since April 2006. 

The NAHB Housing Market Index is not a “single survey” — it’s a composite. Three separate surveys are sent by the trade association to its members and roughly 400 builders respond. The NAHB’s survey questions query builders on their current single-family home sales volume; their projected single-family home sales volume for the next 6 months; and, their current levels of buyer “foot traffic”.

The results are then compiled into the NAHB Housing Market Index.

In June, home builders provided mixed replies :

  • Current Single-Family Sales : 32 (+2 from May)
  • Projected Single-Family Sales : 34 (Unchanged from May)
  • Buyer Foot Traffic : 23 (Unchanged from May)

Of particular interest to today’s new construction buyers is that builders are reporting higher levels of single-family sales, and expect their sales volume to increase over the next six months. This expectation is rooted in housing market momentum and low mortgage rates.

Never in recorded history have homes been as affordable as they are today and home buyers are taking notice. Foot traffic through builder models remains strong and is at its highest pace in more than 5 years. 

When demand for homes outweighs the supply of homes, home prices rise. If builder expectations are met, therefore, buyers in Scottsdale should expect new home prices to rise in 2012’s second half.

Planning to buy new construction this year or next? Consider moving up your time frame.

June 19, 2012 Posted by | Housing Analysis | , , | Leave a comment

10 Cities Projecting Home Value Increases Through 2013

10 cities poised for growth through 2013Nationwide, the U.S. housing market is showing signs of recovery. Home prices are rising as demand for homes outweighs existing home supply in many metropolitan regions.

As is customary in real estate, though, the degrees to which home values change vary by area.

In some U.S. markets, the housing recovery is outpacing the national average. In other markets, it lags. In an effort to measure the changes, CNNMoney has named the 10 U.S. housing markets in which home prices may rise the fastest.

The list is stuffed with small- to mid-size cities, most of which have experienced huge price drops since the housing market’s peak in 2007. The cities are gems, however, for the right type of home buyer. This may include real estate investors, first-time buyers, move-up buyers, and even parents with children in need of “college housing”.

As listed by CNNMoney, the 10 cities in which home values are rising fastest are :

  1. Madera, CA (Down 53.1% from peak; Forecast 21.5% gain through 2013)
  2. Medford, OR (Down 37.1% from peak; Forecast 20.1% gain through 2013)
  3. Yuma, AZ (Down 37.4% from peak; Forecast 16.7% gain through 2013)
  4. Corvallis, OR (Down 11.4% from peak; Forecast 13.2% gain through 2013)
  5. Eugene, OR (Down 21.2% from peak; Forecast 12.4% gain through 2013)
  6. Olympia, WA (Down 26.3% from peak; Forecast 11.3% gain through 2013)
  7. Boise, ID (Down 36.9% from peak; Forecast 11.0% gain through 2013)
  8. Billings, MT (Down 3.0% from peak; Forecast 10.1% gain through 2013)
  9. Lewiston, ID (Down 7.5% from peak; Forecast 10.0% gain through 2013)
  10. Sante Fe, NM (Down 17.1% from peak; Forecast 10.0% gain through 2013)

These 10 cities are more diverse in their make-up than their geography. All ten can be found in the western half of the United States. However, whereas some cities are expected to excel as a result of proximity of universities — Eugene and Corvallis, for example — others are expected to excel for economic reasons.

This includes cities such as Yuma, which is in a Foreign Trade Zone.

Real estate remains a local market, though, and even within these ten cities, there will exist neighborhoods in which growth exceed national averages, and areas in which growth falls behind.

For accurate, real-time real estate data in Scottsdale , be sure to speak with a real estate professional.

June 18, 2012 Posted by | Rankings | , , | Leave a comment

Phoenix Leads Annual Home Price Gains, According To Case-Shiller Index

Case-Shiller Index

Standard & Poors released its March 2012 Case-Shiller Index last week. The index is meant to measure changes in home prices from month-to-month, and from year-to-year, in select U.S. cities.

According to the report, home values rose in 12 of the Case-Shiller Index’s 20 tracked markets, and one market remained unchanged.

Of the Case-Shiller markets, Phoenix, Arizona posted the largest one-year gain, climbing 6.1 percent. Atlanta, Georgia posted the largest one-year loss. Values falling more than seventeen percent there year-over-year.

Overall, the Case-Shiller Index was relatively unchanged in March as compared to the month prior, but down nearly 3 percent on an annual basis. Nationwide, says Standard & Poor’s, home values are back to the levels of late-2002.

Don’t be overly concerned, however. Though widely-cited, the Case-Shiller Index is a flawed and misleading metric. It’s methodology almost guarantees it.

The first flaw in the Case-Shiller Index is its limited geography. Despite there being more than 3,100 municipalities nationwide, the Case-Shiller Index tracks just 20 of them. They’re not the 20 largest ones, either. Houston, Philadelphia, San Antonio, San Jose are specifically excluded from the Case-Shiller Index and each is among the Top 10 Most Populous Cities in the United States.

Minneapolis (#48) and Tampa (#55), by contrast, are included.

The Case-Shiller Index’s second flaw is that only tracks the sales of single-family, detached homes. Sales of condominiums and multi-unit homes carry no weight in the index whatsoever — even in cities such as Chicago and New York in which condos can account for a large percentage of the overall real estate market.

And, lastly, when the Case-Shiller Index is published, it’s published on a two-month delay. Buyers and sellers in Phoenix don’t need housing data from two months ago — they need data from today. The Case-Shiller Index tells us what housing was, in other words. It doesn’t tell us how housing is

Buyers and sellers need real-time, actionable information. You can’t get that from the flawed Case-Shiller Index. For more accurate, relevant real estate data, talk to your real estate professional instead. 

June 8, 2012 Posted by | Housing Analysis | , , | Leave a comment